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VIDEO ENERGY BRIEF - March 7, 2014
With Ray Franklin, Senior Energy Analyst, CES, Inc.

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ENERGY ALERT - February 26, 2014
Ramifications of Low Natural Gas Storage Levels - by Ray Franklin, Senior Energy Analyst

The purpose of this Energy Alert is threefold:

  1. Discuss performance of Natural Gas and Electricity rates since my Jan 30th Energy Alert. I refer to the price action of Natural Gas and Electricity together because of their high price correlation.
  2. Short-Term - Market Perspective
  3. Long-Term - Market Perspective

In my Jan 3rd and Jan 30th Energy Alerts I warned we were entering the winter heating season with relatively low natural gas inventory levels and the very cold winter we were experiencing would draw down supplies to critically low levels. I stated if temperatures were normal in the high usage areas in Feb and Mar, Natural Gas prices would likely trend higher and marginally exceed the $6.00 price objective I projected in my Video Alerts, but If temperatures were colder than normal, a significant Natural Gas storage crisis could develop this winter and Natural Gas and Electricity rates could skyrocket and Natural Gas would trading higher than my original $6.00 price objective.

I am sure you are aware temperatures in February have been colder than normal in the eastern 2/3rds of the nation and natural gas storage levels continue to plunge. In its last storage report released on Jan 20th, the EIA announced inventories of Natural Gas now stand at 1.443 trillion cubic feet, which is 40.3% below last year and 33.9% below the five-year average.

Natural Gas prices surged in response to the tightening supplies with the nearby contract of Natural Gas reaching high of $6.49 per MMBtu on Monday before pulling back sharply to the 50-day Moving Average into today’s expiration of the nearby contract.

The chart below shows the trade action of the nearby contract of Natural Gas:

The above chart reflects the high volatility I predicted and I believe is a microcosm of what is coming.

>>> READ FULL ARTICLE

Recent Energy News Articles

Over the last 18-months, we warned the bear market low of 2012 would lead to a bull market similar to 2002-2008. Our Energy Alerts, listed chronologically following today’s analysis, discuss the fundamental and technical factors we felt would lead to increased volatility and substantial upside risk in natural gas and electricity rates.

READ FULL ARTICLE

In my Dec 4th Energy Alert I pointed out the straight line rally beginning in early November indicated strong buying interest and is normally seen at the beginning of major moves. I also stated straight line moves are always followed by a correction before continuing higher and set an objective to near the 200-Day MA prior to moving higher.

The following day the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released an extraordinary natural gas storage report which showed a decrease in supplies of 285 Bcf, which was the largest weekly decrease in recorded history. I discuss the ramifications of this report for natural gas and electricity rates in 2 video Energy Alerts recorded on Dec 16th & 19th, which are available on the first page of our website.These video alerts explain that based on supply concerns, any pullback will be shallow and short-lived, and as shown in the chart below, natural gas and electricity are poised to rally in the first half of 2014, much as they did in 2008.

READ FULL ARTICLE

The purpose of this Energy Alert is threefold:

  1. Discuss performance of Natural Gas and Electricity since our October 25th Energy Alert. We discuss the price action of Natural Gas and Electricity together because of their high price correlation.
  2. Short-Term - Market Perspective
  3. Long-Term - Market Perspective
READ FULL ARTICLE

The purpose of this Energy Alert is twofold:

  1. Notify our clients of a near-term buy signal for Natural Gas and Electricity, which are highly correlated to each other.
  2. Evidence for higher prices longer-term from a technical and seasonal perspective.
READ FULL ARTICLE

In our last Energy Alert we predicted Natural Gas would remain below its long-term trend line for a short period of time and considered an opportunity to initiate or extend hedges. As you can see from the chart below Natural Gas closed above the 200-Day Moving Average today...READ FULL ARTICLE

In our 6/21/13 Energy Alert, we stated natural gas was nearing completion of the pullback we predicted as it declined to the 200-Day Moving Average. We explained the 200-Day Moving Average is the long-term indicator of trend, and based on long-term cyclical patterns the 10-year low reached in the spring of 2012 was likely the end of a four-year bear market, and we are now in the early stages of a bull market similar to the bull market of 2002 to 2008. During bull markets long-term trend followers utilize pullbacks towards the 200-day moving average as hedging opportunities... READ FULL ARTICLE

If you have followed our Energy Alerts since 4/6/13, you are aware we predicted a window of opportunity would start in 30-45 day in which our clients could capitalize on a short-term pullback. We also stated it would be important to take advantage of this buying opportunity because we believed energy supply rates were poised to go much higher in the second half of 2013... READ FULL ARTICLE

In our last alert on 4/6/13, we stated that in the next 30-45 days a window of opportunity might present itself in which our clients could capitalize on a short-term pullback. We also stated that it would be important to take advantage of this buying opportunity because we believe energy supply rates are poised to go much higher in the second half of 2013... READ FULL ARTICLE

The following update is short, but if you have not hedged your Natural Gas or Electricity it is vital that you read this and understand its implications to your business... READ FULL ARTICLE

We are recommending all Commercial/Industrial customers currently under contract through 1st quarter 2014 lock in electricity and natural gas hedges in the next 30-60 days. This report will outline several reasons why we feel Natural Gas and Electricity prices will continue to increase moving into 2013... READ FULL ARTICLE

After reaching a historic 10 year low price on April 19th of $1.90, natural gas rallied over 45% in the past 2 months to close at $2.78 on July 6th. This is having an IMMEDIATE impact on both electricity and natural gas rates available for commercial and residential customers... READ FULL ARTICLE

Natural Gas and Electricity prices have recently hit unprecedented 10 year low levels not seen since prior to Hurricane Katrina. Current price levels are even slightly lower than the lows reached in the Fall of 2009, subsequent to the economic meltdown. This has transpired in large part due to the following reasons... READ FULL ARTICLE

About Deregulation

  • In 1998 the first US states deregulated electricity and natural gas and broke utility company monopolies.

  • Deregulation allowed new energy suppliers to enter the market place and offer more competitive rates and more flexible programs for commercial and residential users.

  • Currently 18 states are deregulated. List of deregulated states   List of states we serve

  • CES was founded in 1999, and has contracted with the nation’s best and largest energy supply companies to help them sign up new customers. With all the top suppliers to choose from, we can always find a program that is right for you and will save you money.