VIDEO ENERGY BRIEF - April 10, 2014
With Ray Franklin, Senior Energy Analyst, CES, Inc.
ENERGY ALERT - April 8, 2014
Long-term perspective of Natural Gas & Electricity - by Ray Franklin, Senior Energy Analyst
In this Energy Alert I will discuss Natural Gas and Electricity from a longer-term perspective along with appropriate strategies for today’s environment. I refer to Natural Gas and Electricity together because of their high price correlation.
I will focus on the following 5 points:
- The ramification of demand for Natural Gas being higher in 2014 than in 2013.
- Natural Gas and Electricity are in backwardation
- We are entering a period of high volatility similar to 2002 to 2008.
- Why a period of high volatility is anticipated.
- Hedging strategies for volatile markets.
January 30, 2014 - Natural Gas Storage Crisis Developing
Over the last 18-months, we warned the bear market low of 2012 would lead to a bull market similar to 2002-2008. Our Energy Alerts, listed chronologically following today’s analysis, discuss the fundamental and technical factors we felt would lead to increased volatility and substantial upside risk in natural gas and electricity rates.
January 3, 2014 - Winter Update
In my Dec 4th Energy Alert I pointed out the straight line rally beginning in early November indicated strong buying interest and is normally seen at the beginning of major moves. I also stated straight line moves are always followed by a correction before continuing higher and set an objective to near the 200-Day MA prior to moving higher.
The following day the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released an extraordinary natural gas storage report which showed a decrease in supplies of 285 Bcf, which was the largest weekly decrease in recorded history. I discuss the ramifications of this report for natural gas and electricity rates in 2 video Energy Alerts recorded on Dec 16th & 19th, which are available on the first page of our website.These video alerts explain that based on supply concerns, any pullback will be shallow and short-lived, and as shown in the chart below, natural gas and electricity are poised to rally in the first half of 2014, much as they did in 2008.
December 4, 2013 - Near-Term Buy Signals for Natural Gas and Electricity
The purpose of this Energy Alert is threefold:
- Discuss performance of Natural Gas and Electricity since our October 25th Energy Alert. We discuss the price action of Natural Gas and Electricity together because of their high price correlation.
- Short-Term - Market Perspective
- Long-Term - Market Perspective
October 25, 2013 - Near-Term Buy Signals for Natural Gas and Electricity
The purpose of this Energy Alert is twofold:
- Notify our clients of a near-term buy signal for Natural Gas and Electricity, which are highly correlated to each other.
- Evidence for higher prices longer-term from a technical and seasonal perspective.
September 16, 2013 - Natural Gas and Electricity Resuming Long-term Trend Higher
In our last Energy Alert we predicted Natural Gas would remain below its long-term trend line for a short period of time and considered an opportunity to initiate or extend hedges. As you can see from the chart below Natural Gas closed above the 200-Day Moving Average today...READ FULL ARTICLE
July 26, 2013 - Natural Gas Consolidating near the 200-Day Moving Average
In our 6/21/13 Energy Alert, we stated natural gas was nearing completion of the pullback we predicted as it declined to the 200-Day Moving Average. We explained the 200-Day Moving Average is the long-term indicator of trend, and based on long-term cyclical patterns the 10-year low reached in the spring of 2012 was likely the end of a four-year bear market, and we are now in the early stages of a bull market similar to the bull market of 2002 to 2008. During bull markets long-term trend followers utilize pullbacks towards the 200-day moving average as hedging opportunities... READ FULL ARTICLE
June 21, 2013 - Third and Final Near-Term Hedging Opportunity
If you have followed our Energy Alerts since 4/6/13, you are aware we predicted a window of opportunity would start in 30-45 day in which our clients could capitalize on a short-term pullback. We also stated it would be important to take advantage of this buying opportunity because we believed energy supply rates were poised to go much higher in the second half of 2013... READ FULL ARTICLE
May 10, 2013 - How to Respond to Near-Term Correction in Natural Gas Price
In our last alert on 4/6/13, we stated that in the next 30-45 days a window of opportunity might present itself in which our clients could capitalize on a short-term pullback. We also stated that it would be important to take advantage of this buying opportunity because we believe energy supply rates are poised to go much higher in the second half of 2013... READ FULL ARTICLE
April 6, 2013 - Near-Term Hedging Opportunity in April/May
The following update is short, but if you have not hedged your Natural Gas or Electricity it is vital that you read this and understand its implications to your business... READ FULL ARTICLE
April 4, 2013 - Concerns Point To Higher Natural Gas and Electricity Rates in 2013
We are recommending all Commercial/Industrial customers currently under contract through 1st quarter 2014 lock in electricity and natural gas hedges in the next 30-60 days. This report will outline several reasons why we feel Natural Gas and Electricity prices will continue to increase moving into 2013... READ FULL ARTICLE
July 15, 2012 - Natural Gas Continues Rally into Summer
After reaching a historic 10 year low price on April 19th of $1.90, natural gas rallied over 45% in the past 2 months to close at $2.78 on July 6th. This is having an IMMEDIATE impact on both electricity and natural gas rates available for commercial and residential customers... READ FULL ARTICLE
May 8, 2012 - Natural Gas and Electricity Prices at Record Low Levels
Natural Gas and Electricity prices have recently hit unprecedented 10 year low levels not seen since prior to Hurricane Katrina. Current price levels are even slightly lower than the lows reached in the Fall of 2009, subsequent to the economic meltdown. This has transpired in large part due to the following reasons... READ FULL ARTICLE
In 1998 the first US states deregulated electricity and natural gas and broke utility company monopolies.
Deregulation allowed new energy suppliers to enter the market place and offer more competitive rates and more flexible programs for commercial and residential users.
CES was founded in 1999, and has contracted with the nation’s best and largest energy supply companies to help them sign up new customers. With all the top suppliers to choose from, we can always find a program that is right for you and will save you money.